On Thursday, November 11, 2021, in Houston, Debbie Rowe (right) helps Jennifer Conejo find a toy crane among the big blue whales.

On Thursday, November 11, 2021, in Houston, car toys have always been a hot commodity for the Big Blue Whale.

On Thursday, November 11, 2021, the Big Blue Whale toy store on West 19th Street in Houston.

People shop at Galleria in Houston on Thursday, November 4, 2021.

On Friday, November 19, 2021, Elsa Fernandez, the founder of Eye Candy Boutique, stood in her showroom at 2003 S. Zarzamora Street in San Antonio, Texas. Customers can make appointments with Fernandez from Wednesday to Saturday to get personal style and shopping experience.

On Wednesday, November 17, 2021, 4-year-old Millie Herrera walks through the Winter Cathedral in the lighting installation "Lightscape" at the San Antonio Botanical Garden.

Colorful earrings are displayed in the Eye Candy Boutique showroom, a large-size fashion store located in 2003 S. Zarzamora St. in San Antonio, Texas. Small business owner Elsa Fernandez sells plus-size clothing and accessories, such as jewelry, sunglasses, and headbands.

Despite the media's hype about supply chain issues, parents with pitchforks did not rush into the Amazon fulfillment center to find special Christmas gifts for their beloved.

At least not yet. The story will be told in the next four days.

According to Numerator, a retail and marketing data analysis company, half of Americans plan to shop online in the next four days. The company predicts that half of its sales will occur on Amazon.

"Almost a quarter of consumers (24%) said they plan to spend more on this Internet weekend than in previous years, and 12% of consumers said they would reduce their spending," a Numerator researcher reported.

A poll conducted by online financial company LendingTree found that 49% of Americans will shop in small business stores on Saturday. More than 60% of shoppers said that the pandemic has made them more loyal to local businesses, and almost the same number believe that Amazon has hurt small shop owners.

Chief credit analyst Matt Schultz said: "During the pandemic, many of these local companies are truly at risk, in large part because they don't have the resources for large national chains to weather the storm." "A lot of people were unsuccessful, which is really a shame."

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Experts have recently made a lot of comments on inflation, but so far, consumer spirit has not been affected. In the past three months, they have increased their spending, and they seem to intend to keep their wallets open during the holidays.

Retail sales increased by 1.7% in October. JPMorgan Chase raised its fourth-quarter economic growth forecast from 4% to 5%. This is a rapid and unsustainable pace, but it is good news for the retail industry. But will consumers find what they want?

If you are looking for the latest and most popular product made overseas, you will struggle if you have not purchased the product. Anything that involves computer chips, especially PlayStation 5 or high-speed laptops, may be difficult to buy. But so far, there have been more expectations of shortages than actual ones.

Fred Hajjar, owner of UglyChristmasSweater.com, told USA Today that some of his styles are running out, but he is far from running out. The CEOs of Wal-Mart, Target, TJ Maxx, and other major stores assured investors that they have a lot of inventory to sell.

Fortunately, there are no popular and must-have toys this year. Most consumers have heard enough about supply chain issues and adjusted their expectations. If you buy products made in the U.S., you are much more likely to score.

The Made in America Alliance provides useful state guides for patriotic shoppers. As Asian factories slow production due to COVID-19, American apparel and footwear manufacturers are revolutionizing industries across the country with outstanding design.

RealSteel of Pasadena is a Texas based company that produces metal cutout signs, decorations and garden art suitable for various occasions. The Buffalo Wool Company in Weatherford provides American-made socks, gloves, hats, knitwear and footwear made from Bison wool and leather.

You won't find big discounts or sales this year, at least not until the new year. The retailer is not worried about overstocking.

The real shortage facing retailers is labor.

According to data from the financial data company Standard & Poor's Global Ratings, since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, approximately 1.4 million workers between the ages of 25 and 54 have left the labor market. This pushed up wages and reduced US annual economic growth by 1%.

Chief Economist Beth Ann Bovino said: “We estimate that about 42% of the 3 million people who have left the labor market since February 2020 are permanent, mainly related to retirement. Relevant, and 58% are short-term, pandemic decisions to leave the market.” said.

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According to a survey conducted by small business recommendation website Alignable, two-thirds of small businesses and more than 60% of retailers said it is difficult for them to find suitable employees to fill vacant positions.

The good news is that logistics experts expect the backlog of US ports and the shortage of truck drivers to ease next year. As more and more Americans get vaccinated, the fear of infection decreases, more people will re-enter the labor market, and wage inflation will slow down.

Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, will not look so bad next year. If retailers have a backlog of inventory this season, sales in January will be amazing. But only when all these things return to normal, the economic impact of the pandemic will end.

Until then, please consider the 2021 holiday as another COVID Christmas, but another adjustment season is required. With luck, the virus will give up control of the economy and our holidays next year.

Tomlinson writes reviews on business, economics, and politics.

Since 2014, Chris Tomlinson has been writing business, energy and economic reviews for the Houston Chronicle. He is the author of two New York Times best-selling books, "Forget the Alamo: The Rise and Fall of American Mythology" and "Tomlinson Hill: The Extraordinary Story" two families with Tomlinson's name-one is white and the other is black. Before joining Chronicle, he worked for the Associated Press for 20 years, covering politics, economics, conflicts and natural disasters from more than 30 countries in Africa, the Middle East and Europe.

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