(CNN)-Epic port congestion is alleviating. Freight rates are falling from high levels. The delivery speed has been increased slightly. There are more and more signs that the chaos in the supply chain is finally beginning to be cleared.

This is not to say that the nightmare of the supply chain is over. no. And the situation may not return to normal soon.

Companies are still struggling to solve the disturbing shortage of truck drivers. Key components, including computer chips, are still scarce. The variants of Omicron may put new pressure on the supply chain.

Nevertheless, there is evidence that the bottleneck is beginning to be cleared. Given that the unprecedented pressure on the supply chain has greatly contributed to historical inflation in the United States, this is encouraging.

Matt Collard, an economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN: "I am increasingly convinced that the worst seems to be over." "There are data that indicate that the situation is improving. But there is still a lot of uncertainty."

The chaos in the supply chain is largely caused by the pandemic. When the world economy closed during the Covid outbreak, the logistics network was under tremendous pressure-and then quickly reopened. The demand for commodities soared, and the just-in-time supply chain collapsed under pressure. The Covid outbreak and inconsistent health agreements around the world have made the situation worse.

But a silver lining can be found in recent economic reports.

For example, the backlog of orders in the Manufacturing Survey of the Institute of Supply Management fell from an all-time high of 70.6 in May to 61.9 in November. The backlog of orders is still growing, but at a slower rate. Supplier delivery rates appear to be increasing, albeit at a very low level.

Jefferies economist Thomas Simons wrote in a recent report: "It will take a long time for the nation's supply chain to fully recover, but at least the first step seems to be in place." Customers.

The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank's manufacturing index showed that the level of unfulfilled orders fell in November and delivery times fell.

The improvement in delivery time is encouraging, because this is happening even when new orders, output, and shipments increase.

Moody’s Colyar said: “This shows that the improvement is because the surveyed manufacturers are better able to get their products out of the market, not just because the demand is cooling and the phone stops ringing.”

Progress has been even more significant in clearing traffic congestion for container ships docked outside California ports.

As of Wednesday, 30 container ships have berthed near the Port of Long Beach and Los Angeles. This is down from the peak of over 80 during the peak congestion period of the port.

The Biden administration has made concerted efforts to reduce pressure on the port, including persuading the Port of Los Angeles to operate 24/7.

According to data from Oxford Economics, another positive aspect is that shipping costs fell by 5% in November, but they were still “several times higher” than the level before the outbreak.

Barclays said that global transportation costs "seem to have peaked."

Barclays economists wrote in a recent report: “We believe that the rapid decline in the number of container ships waiting to be unloaded and the decline in global shipping prices may cause the supply bottleneck to be eased,” Barclays economists wrote in a recent report. The report said, "If it continues, it may switch to other modes of transportation in the future."

Samera Fazili, deputy director of the White House's National Economic Council, told CNN that she was "excited" by the fact that the number of long-term containers in Los Angeles and Long Beach has been drastically reduced.

"This is huge. It shows that we have finally restored some of the liquidity of the system and eliminated some of the congestion," said Fazili, who led the coordination of the Supply Chain Interruption Working Group. "We are satisfied with the progress made, but we have not stopped."

Fazili emphasized that the Biden administration was recently able to persuade a leading ocean carrier to promise a $100 discount for fast-pick-up containers, and a $200 discount if the goods are picked up during off-peak hours.

Fazili said: “We hope that other ocean carriers will see it as a model and seek to follow suit.” “This is a highly concentrated industry and they have seen record-breaking profits.”

Some business leaders are also cheering for signs of progress.

Joshua Bolten, CEO of the Business Roundtable, told reporters last week that the CEOs “see the opening of the supply chain, albeit at a much slower pace than they hoped.”

Geoff Freeman, CEO of the Consumer Brands Association, told CNN: "Not only will no one see the light at the end of the tunnel, but they don't expect to see the light until 2023. "

Freeman’s trading group represents companies such as Coca-Cola, Kellogg’s and Procter & Gamble. He said that the supply chain of the consumer goods industry is mainly located in the United States, which means it does not feel the benefits of port improvements like others.

"In this case, the port is a moderate participant," Freeman said. "For us, this is really about trucking, trucking, trucking. Trucking is not getting better."

The shortage of truck drivers is nothing new, but the new crown virus has made the situation worse. The American Trucking Association estimates that the industry lacks 80,000 truck drivers, a record high.

Until the shortage of truck drivers is alleviated, it is difficult to see how the supply chain will return to a healthy level.

Freeman encouraged the Biden administration to persuade more states to follow in the footsteps of California, South Carolina and Ohio by relaxing state regulations that limit the maximum weight of trucks.

Freeman said: "The White House may use the power of the domineering forum here to encourage more states to join in."

When asked if the White House had considered relying more on states to relax freight weight restrictions, Fazili said: “The overweight permit is a state-level decision. When states call us, we make sure they have a place to take action. Information needed."

Fazili added that the government continues to work with the industry to try to find solutions regarding trucking capacity.

There are still many uncertainties when the supply chain can return to normal or close to normal.

The majority (58%) of economists surveyed by the National Association of Business Economics predict that commodity supply will begin to normalize in the first half of next year. Nearly a quarter (22%) of the respondents said that this process has already or will begin before the end of this year.

The global shortage of computer chips continues to plague the global supply chain, limiting the production of a range of products, including iPhones and new cars.

According to Citigroup, the chip shortage has had an "extreme impact" on the auto industry, leading to the biggest drop in car inventories on record. This caused the prices of new and used cars to soar, leading to the fastest inflation rate since the early 1990s.

Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo told CNN last week that this devastating shortage is unlikely to disappear "until 2022."

Raimundo also admitted that there is reason to worry that Omicron will make people afraid of working in narrow places such as factories, thereby increasing the pressure on the global supply chain.

There is also a risk that Omicron will stifle production and transportation in China and other countries that have a zero tolerance policy on Covid.

Moody’s economist Kollar said: “The worst-case scenario for the global economy’s difficulty in obtaining commodities at the speed of demand.”

All this reminds people once again that, for better or worse, the world economy is still affected by the pandemic.

For its part, the Biden administration emphasized that it does not seek to restore business as usual — because it turned out to be a broken model.

"Covid has exposed our supply chain is very weak," Fazili said. "Returning to pre-pandemic norms is not our goal here. We are trying to rebuild stronger in new ways."

— Vanessa Yurkevich of CNN contributed to this report.

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